Oil & Gas
Is it possible to anticipate the amount of gas to have readily available in storage at any one point in time?
Storengy is a French gas storage company. It works in partnership with GRTGaz, which provides wholesale gas. This gas is in turn distributed to the end consumer by Engie, a services company.
A gas storage has three main operating characteristics;
(1) working gas volume,
(2) withdrawal rate and
(3) injection rate.
The working gas volume is the gas buffering required over several days. The withdrawal defines the volume that can be withdrawn, i.e., consumed.
Market players tend to own or contract natural gas storage flexibility primarily to manage the fluctuations in their portfolios. But, again, it is a supply chain issue.
TADA has predicted the volume of gas stored using a dataset made publicly available by Storengy. This dataset includes 741 records and the following parameters:
It is challenging to reach a compromise between securing gas supply, storing enough gas, and dealing with the fluctuations of natural gas prices. Under normal market conditions, the available storage capacity is efficiently used and available at a relatively low cost. However, over the long term, unusual market conditions happen. That’s when there might be a shortage of natural gas storage flexibility in the system. Hence, providing good predictions using TADA is key to finding the right balance.
It poses the following question related to the natural gas industry:
Can gas storage requirements be estimated daily with accuracy?
The TADA predictive models’ results reach a 91% global score, a 99% R2 based on actual data for gas storage.
Storage plays a vital role in competitive natural-gas markets. Indeed, the consumption of natural gas varies more than gas production does. Furthermore, the injection season happens at entirely different times from the actual gas demand. Whether during the summer months or cold weather, it has no impact on gas injection timing.
Demand is fluctuating. And to top it off, demand is often at a considerable distance from the gas production sources. Hence, there are significant variations in average prices. Furthermore, in North America and Europe, natural gas storage capacity measured by working volume is around 18% of the total consumption. As a consequence, there are fluctuations in natural gas prices.
TADA has selected the following six main criteria out of the eleven available in the dataset:
Analyzing TADA’s results, it does make sense that the actual gas stored depends on the month. Typically, more gas is consumed during cold weather than during the summer months.
Since the financial crisis, natural gas production has been steadily increasing at a yearly average of 2.7%.
In one week, procurement engineers at Storengy gained the ability to: